Im UK dürfte die Wahl morgen doch spannender werden, als man es noch vor Monaten annehmen konnte. Auch wenn sich die Gemüter streiten wie knapp. Es gibt mittlerweile Polls, in denen Labour sogar leicht vorne liegt, in anderen liegen sie wiederum knapp 6% dahinter.
Labour support has surged in the polls, rising by around eight points in the polling average. The Conservatives have held on to most of their own earlier poll surge, achieved mainly through the mass defection of 2015 Ukip voters, so they remain ahead, but the gap has closed sharply. A lead of over 20 points has halved to under 10, with a lot of disagreement between pollsters. Some polls and projections now suggest May could even end up losing ground this week
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -grey-vote
A case can be made either way. Believers in the Labour surge can point to the broader polling evidence – it is not just Labour’s headline support that has improved but Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership ratings have also risen sharply, albeit from a low base, while May’s are down. Labour’s ratings on the issues have also improved, while pollsters suggest that the Tories’ very unpopular “dementia tax” social care proposal is the main policy to have “cut through” with voters during the campaign.
Surge sceptics, however, can also build a convincing case. Labour’s rise in the polls has been concentrated in demographics – in particular, younger voters and former non-voters – who tend to turn out at low levels but are now apparently very keen to vote. The Tories continue to win the other side of the generation game, with a huge and stable lead among pensioners.
Judgments of the Labour surge in the polls – and prospects on 8 June – hinge very strongly on whether the traditional “grey advantage” in turnout is reduced this time. There are two reasons to think it won’t be: the historical record and the record of the polls. Large generation gaps in turnout have been recorded in all the recent British elections, including the very high turnout for the EU and Scottish independence referendums. The polls also have longstanding problems with political engagement – they recruit too many political enthusiasts, and people taking polls tend to exaggerate their likelihood of voting. Pollsters also have a longstanding (and most likely related) tendency to overstate Labour support and understate Tory support – a pattern that has held in every election but one since 1987.
Fakt ist, Theresa May hat ihren dicken 20% Vorsprung verspielt, was auch im wesentlichen an den Anschlägen und ihrer Reaktion darauf, wie auch auf die simple Tatsache, dass eben genau sie und niemand anderes für die massiven Einschnitte bei der Polizei verantwortlich war:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... er-budgets
Police numbers, including the number of armed police officers, have fallen sharply under Theresa May’s watch first as home secretary between 2010 and 2016 and then as prime minister.
The simple numbers tell the story. In 2010 May as home secretary made the mistake that Margaret Thatcher never made in the 1980s and agreed to a Treasury demand to cut police budgets by 18%.
Over the next five years the number of police officers in England and Wales fell from a peak of 144,353 in 2009 to 122,859 in 2016. At the same time the number of specialist armed police officers has fallen from a peak of 6,796 in 2010 to 5,639 in 2016.
The tide turned when the attacks in France in April 2016 prompted a rethink of anti-terrorism policing. David Cameron committed to reversing the decline in armed police officers and made £143m available to recruit 1,500 extra firearms officers by 2021. Contingency plans were also made to put up to 5,000 troops on standby in the event of a terrorist attack.
At the same time May had secured a commitment in autumn 2015 not to go ahead with a further 20% cut in police budgets but instead protect them in cash terms. This was however not before Labour’s then shadow home secretary, Andy Burnham, had actually argued that forces could cope with a further budget cut of up to 10% but that 20% would put community safety at risk.
Die restlichen Aussagen von May, angefangen von der Fuchsjagd bis hin zum Magic money tree haben dann den Rest erledigt. Selbst Whitehall hält aktuell einiges für möglich:
Election 2017: Whitehall is now preparing for a hung parliament, say reports
Planning for such an eventuality stepped up as polls predict range of results, from hung parliament to Tory landslide
Senior civil servants in Whitehall have reportedly been told to prepare plans for a hung parliament as the latest polls show Thursday's election may not deliver a decisive result.
Planning for such an eventuality has been stepped up, with one Whitehall source telling The Times: “A senior civil servant sat in a meeting and said, ‘We’ve just all been told to prepare our plan for a hung parliament.’"
They added: "This goes further than before.”
It comes as the polls predict a range of results, from a hung parliament to a landslide for the Conservatives.
Es dürfte morgen auf jeden Fall ziemlich spannend werden. Und alleine das ist doch schon deutlich mehr als man noch vor einem Monat erwartete.